Key Projections: Carbon Biomass Growth
- 35% increase under low-emissions pathway by 2100
- 62% increase under medium-emissions pathway
- 97% increase under high-emissions, fossil-fuel-intensive scenario
- Steepest acceleration expected after 2050
Core Drivers of Increase
The growth is driven by two interacting forces:
- Elevated atmospheric CO₂ - enhances photosynthesis and water-use efficiency
- Rising precipitation - increases available moisture for tree growth
Geographical Distribution
Highest relative increases (counterintuitively):
- Desert and semi-arid zones of Rajasthan, Gujarat, and western Madhya Pradesh
Smaller relative increases:
- Western Ghats and Himalayas - due to ecological saturation and regional climatic pressures
The "Masked Stress" Caveat
The projected rise in forest vegetation is not necessarily net positive:
- Models fail to account for critical factors:
- Soil nutrient limitations
- Climate-driven disturbances (wildfires, droughts, pest outbreaks)
- Deforestation pressures
- The apparent increase may mask deeper ecological stress
- Risks: forest instability, degradation, large-scale carbon release
Divergence from Official Estimates
| Source | Data | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Forest Survey of India (FSI) | 6.94 billion tonnes | 2013 |
| FSI | 7.29 billion tonnes | 2023 |
| FSI (projection) | 8.65 billion tonnes | 2030 |
The study's long-term modelling diverges from FSI's more modest, steady rise based on field and remote sensing data.
Significance for National Climate Goals
- India's updated NDC (2021-2035) raised forest carbon sink target:
- 3.5-4 billion tonnes CO₂ equivalent by 2035
- Understanding carbon dynamics crucial for achieving this target
UPSC Relevance
- GS Paper 3: Environment & Ecology, Climate Change mitigation
- Related to: India's international commitments, carbon sink management, ecological vulnerabilities
- Connects to: NDC targets, Paris Agreement, sustainable development goals