Key Facts & Data Points
- Oil & LNG imports: Over 85% of India's crude oil and a large share of LNG come from Gulf states (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Qatar).
- Strait of Hormuz: Carries about 60‑65% of India's oil and LNG imports; any blockage directly curtails supply.
- Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR): Currently 5.33 million metric tonnes, covering only a few days of consumption (global benchmark ~90 days).
- LPG: India is the 2nd largest consumer globally; ≈60% of demand is imported, mainly via the Hormuz route. Underground storage ≈ 1.4 lakh tonnes (≈2 days).
- Natural Gas: India consumes 195 MMSCMD; nearly 50% is imported, making it vulnerable to LNG disruptions.
- Fertiliser imports: Reliance on Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar for ammonia, sulphur, phosphoric acid; domestic urea stock‑pile ~5.5 Mt (Feb 2026).
- Food‑export exposure: USD 11.8 bn of agri‑exports to West Asia (≈21% of total agri exports) at risk.
- Rupee pressure: Record lows; RBI intervened with USD 15‑20 bn from reserves.
- Diaspora: ~1 crore Indians in GCC, remitting USD 51 bn annually.
Background & Context
- The escalation between the US‑Israel coalition and Iran has led to naval threats and occasional closures of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global energy trade.
- Simultaneous supply‑chain disruptions affect LPG, compressed natural gas (CNG), and fertiliser imports, amplifying imported inflation.
- India’s policy of strategic autonomy is tested as it balances ties with the US, Israel and Iran while safeguarding domestic interests.
Significance for India / Governance / Policy
- Energy security: Rising crude prices (+15%) and limited SPR erode the “Goldilocks” growth‑inflation equilibrium, widening the Current Account Deficit.
- Food security: Disruption of fertilizer imports could affect agricultural output; the government may need to divert gas to fertiliser plants.
- Trade & maritime strategy: Blocked containers and higher freight costs threaten exporters; a Force Majeure declaration and a War‑Risk Insurance Pool are proposed.
- Domestic production push: Accelerate HELP‑driven gas exploration, National Green Hydrogen Mission, and promote nano‑urea/DAP to cut import dependence.
- Strategic petroleum reserves: Expanding to 90‑day coverage aligns with global best practices and provides a buffer against geopolitical shocks.
- Alternative routes: Operationalising the Eastern Maritime Corridor (Chennai‑Vladivostok) reduces reliance on Middle‑East chokepoints.
Related Constitutional / Legal Provisions
- Essential Commodities Act, 1955: Enables the government to regulate production, supply and distribution of essential commodities like LPG, natural gas and fertilizers during emergencies.
- Foreign Exchange Management Act (FEMA), 1999: Governs RBI interventions in the foreign‑exchange market to stabilise the rupee.
- Export Promotion Capital Goods (EPCG) Scheme and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation (ECGC) provisions can be leveraged for war‑risk insurance.
Policy Recommendations
- Diversify crude and LNG basket – increase long‑term contracts with Latin America, West Africa and the US.
- Scale up SPR – target 90‑day import cover; develop additional underground storage.
- Fast‑track green transition – expand renewable capacity, remove regulatory bottlenecks, and boost the National Green Hydrogen Mission.
- Boost domestic gas production – expedite HELP licences and incentivise upstream investment.
- Promote alternative fertilisers – nano‑urea, nano‑DAP, bio‑fertilisers under PM‑PRANAM.
- Declare Force Majeure for West‑Asia trade disruptions.
- Create a sovereign‑backed war‑risk insurance pool via ECGC.
- Operationalise the Eastern Maritime Corridor to bypass Hormuz.
Conclusion
India must shift from a just‑in‑time import model to a just‑in‑case strategic buffer, leveraging maritime independence, domestic production and renewable transition to mitigate geopolitical vulnerabilities.