Key Facts and Data Points
- Top global risk (2026): Geoeconomic confrontation – strategic use of trade restrictions, sanctions, investment controls and technology bans.
- Top risk for India (2026): Cybersecurity – driven by massive digitalisation of governance, fintech and critical infrastructure.
- Second biggest risk for India: Income and wealth inequality (Gini Index ~25.5, top 1% hold 22.6% of national income).
- Other significant Indian risks: Insufficient public services, economic downturn, state‑based armed conflict.
- Malware detections in India (2025): 369.01 million; Trojans 43.38%, Infectors 34.23%.
- Foreign Portfolio Investment outflow (2025): USD 18.9 billion.
- Public health expenditure: 1.9 % of GDP (target 2.5 % by 2025).
- Social protection spending: ~5 % of GDP (global average ~13 %).
Background and Context
- The World Economic Forum (WEF), founded in 1971, publishes the annual Global Risks Report to assess risks that could affect >10 % of global GDP.
- Geoeconomic confrontation reflects rising protectionism and the weaponisation of economic tools, weakening multilateralism.
- Cybersecurity has moved from a technical issue to a systemic national vulnerability, capable of disrupting elections, financial systems and critical infrastructure.
- Inequality acts as a risk multiplier, amplifying social unrest and reducing the state’s capacity to manage crises.
Significance for India / Governance / Policy
- Digital Governance: Initiatives like DBT, Aadhaar, UPI increase efficiency but also expand the attack surface; robust cyber‑laws and a national cyber‑security strategy are essential.
- Economic Resilience: Diversify supply chains, boost domestic manufacturing (Make in India, PLI), and maintain ample forex reserves to cushion geoeconomic shocks.
- Social Protection: Strengthen schemes such as PM‑JDY, Ayushman Bharat and expand social security spending to mitigate inequality‑driven instability.
- Hybrid Threats: Need a whole‑of‑government approach – statutory Multi‑Agency Centre, enhanced financial surveillance (PMLA, 2002), and a National Security Strategy.
- Information Integrity: Implement the ‘FACT Principle’, leverage IT Rules 2021, and promote digital literacy (PM‑DISHA) to counter disinformation.
- Climate Resilience: Integrate climate adaptation into development plans (NAPCC, Mission LiFE, Gati Shakti) to address long‑term environmental risks.
Related Constitutional / Legal Provisions
- Article 21 – Right to life and personal liberty includes the right to privacy and data protection; cyber‑security measures must respect this.
- Information Technology Act, 2000 (amended 2008) – Provides legal framework for cyber offences and data protection.
- National Cyber Security Policy (2013, under review) – Guides the creation of a secure cyberspace.
- National Disaster Management Act, 2005 – Enables coordinated response to climate‑related and hybrid threats.
- Public Services Guarantee (as envisaged in the 73rd/74th Constitutional Amendments) – Strengthening local governance is crucial for delivering public services during crises.
Prepared for UPSC CSE – both Prelims and Mains