Key Highlights of the Report
Current Climate Status
- Global warming: Approximately 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels, increasing at ~0.25°C per decade
- Carbon budget: Only ~130 billion tons of CO₂ remaining (from 2026) for 50% chance of staying within 1.5°C
- Emission rate: ~40 billion tons CO₂ per year means budget exhaustion in ~3 years
- Probability: 75% chance of five-year mean temperature exceeding 1.5°C during 2026-2030
Cost of Delayed Action
- Every 5 years of high emissions adds ~0.1°C to peak warming
- Emissions since 2015 have already increased minimum achievable peak warming by 0.2°C
- Current policy trajectory leads to 2.6°C warming by 2100 (range: 1.9°C-3.6°C)
- Even full NDC implementation still results in 1.8°C peak warming
The 'Overshoot, Peak, and Decline' Framework
This framework represents a strategic shift from prevention to management:
- Exceedance (Overshoot): Period when warming exceeds 1.5°C but hasn't peaked
- Plateau/Peak: Maximum warming level before decline begins
- Decline: Sustained net-negative emissions cause temperatures to fall
- Stabilization: Return to or below 1.5°C target
Critical Role of Methane Mitigation
- Methane contributes ~0.5°C to global warming
- Short atmospheric lifetime enables faster cooling effect than CO₂ reductions
- 60-70 million tonnes reduction in hard-to-abate methane ≈ removing 220 Gt CO₂
- Global Methane Pledge (COP26): 30% reduction from 2020 levels by 2030
- Countries NOT joined: India, China, Russia, Iran
Geopolitical Challenges
- US withdrawal from Paris Agreement, UNFCCC, IPCC, and Green Climate Fund
- West Asia conflict (2026): Largest oil supply disruption, cutting 14+ million barrels/day
- Risk of governments reverting to coal and fossil fuels
Consequences of 1.5°C Overshoot
Cryosphere & Sea Level
- Glaciers (outside Greenland/Antarctica): 25-40% mass loss by 2100
- Sea-level contribution: 9-15.4 cm from glacier melt
- Every 100 years above 1.5°C commits ~40 cm additional rise by 2300
- Sea-level rise persists for centuries due to deep-ocean warming
Ecosystem Tipping Points
- AMOC weakening/collapse risk with centuries-long recovery
- Amazon rainforest: potential shift from carbon sink to net source
- West Antarctic Ice Sheet: irreversible retreat even at lower warming levels
Food & Ocean Security
- Global food production: up to 14% decline by 2050
- Ocean acidification and deoxygenation persist for centuries
Key Recommendations
Climate Finance
- Scale up Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) before peak warming
- Gap: $800 million pledged vs $395 billion annual need
- $1 invested in resilient infrastructure = $4 in avoided losses
- Use Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (MVI) for allocation
Mitigation Actions
- Immediate deep CO₂ and methane reductions
- Shift from Net-Zero to legally binding Net-Negative targets
- Developed nations: net-negative first under CBDR-RC principle
- Renewables: 60-70% of electricity by 2030
Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
- CDR supplements, NOT replaces, emission reductions
- Requires strong governance for environmental and land-use risks
- Both conventional (afforestation) and novel (Direct Air Capture) methods needed
Protecting Vulnerable Nations
- Formalize legal mechanisms for SIDS sovereignty and maritime EEZs under UNCLOS
- Integrate employment protection and social security in just transition
- Treat protected areas as climate infrastructure
Related Constitutional & International Provisions
- Paris Agreement (2015): 1.5°C limit commitment
- UNFCCC: Framework convention on climate change
- CBDR-RC: Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities
- UNCLOS: Maritime entitlements and EEZ protection
- Global Methane Pledge: COP26 initiative (2021)
UPSC Significance
This report is crucial for understanding:
- Evolution of climate diplomacy beyond the 1.5°C target
- Need for transformational adaptation vs incremental measures
- Climate justice and Loss and Damage finance mechanisms
- India's position on Global Methane Pledge