What is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterized by the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
Key Characteristics:
- Occurrence: Happens every 2-7 years
- Cause: Changes in ocean-atmosphere interactions, including weakening of trade winds
- Impact: Influences global wind patterns, atmospheric pressure, and rainfall distribution
Current El Niño Event
- The ongoing El Niño is projected to attain the "very strong" category
- This is the highest level in WMO's classification
- Pacific Ocean temperatures are exceeding 2°C above normal
- Expected to persist until early 2027
Global Impacts
A strong El Niño can disrupt global climate patterns by:
- Increasing risk of: droughts, floods, storms, and typhoons
- Affecting: agriculture, food security, water availability, and energy systems
- Releasing ocean heat gradually into the atmosphere, contributing to higher global temperatures
Temperature Records:
- The strong 2023-24 El Niño contributed to 2024 becoming the warmest year on record
- WMO has warned that future temperature records may be challenged
Implications for India
Monsoon Impact:
- El Niño can influence the Indian summer monsoon
- Strong El Niño events are often associated with increased probability of below-normal rainfall
- Important caveat: The relationship is not uniform every year
Sectoral Impacts:
- Agriculture: Reduced crop yields, affecting food production
- Water Availability: Stress on irrigation systems
- Rural Livelihoods: Impact on farmer incomes
- Food Prices: Potential inflation due to supply constraints
Preparedness Needs:
- Climate-resilient farming practices
- Efficient water management
- Strong early warning systems
WMO Recommendations
- Strengthening early warning systems
- Improving climate forecasting
- Enhancing disaster preparedness
- Promoting drought-resistant crops
- Providing climate information to agriculture, health, and energy sectors
Constitutional/Policy Context
- Disaster Management Act, 2005: Provides framework for disaster preparedness
- India's Climate Action Plan: Addresses climate variability impacts
- National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA): Coordinates response measures